CIA Memorandum on "Flying Saucers" Evaluation (1 August 1952)
This CIA memorandum, dated 1 August 1952 and authored by the Acting Chief of the Weapons & Equipment Division, responds to a request for an overall evaluation of "flying saucers" and associated reports. It states that of roughly 1,000 to 2,600 reports received by the Air Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC), a large percentage are clearly false, an equally large percentage are explainable as known flights of U.S. operational equipment (aircraft, weather balloons), and many others are attributable to natural phenomena (meteorites, clouds, thermal inversion, reflections). Fewer than 100 reasonably credible reports remain "unexplainable," with no pattern of size, configuration, characteristics, performance, or location. The memo cautions that so long as reports remain unexplainable—with interplanetary origins not thoroughly excluded—intelligence should continue coverage of the subject. It recommends CIA surveillance continue in coordination with ATIC, but strongly urges that no indication of CIA interest reach the press or public, fearing alarmist tendencies. The author notes arrangements for a comprehensive briefing at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base on 8 August 1952, after which a detailed analysis would be prepared. Distribution names include B.C. Durant, P.G. Strong, and others.
Description
A declassified 1952 CIA internal memorandum from the Weapons & Equipment Division to the Deputy Assistant Director/ST providing an overall evaluation of "flying saucers" reports received by the Air Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC), assessing their credibility and recommending continued surveillance.
Claims
The memo recommended CIA surveillance continue but that no indication of CIA interest reach the press or public to avoid alarmist public reaction.
80%Of roughly 1,000 to 2,600 flying saucer reports received by ATIC, a large percentage are clearly false and many are explainable as known U.S. aircraft, weather balloons, or natural phenomena.
70%Fewer than 100 reasonably credible reports remain unexplainable, with no discernible pattern of size, configuration, characteristics, performance, or location.
70%Of 1,000 to 2,000 flying saucer reports received by ATIC, a large percentage are clearly false and many others explainable as operational U.S. equipment or natural phenomena.
70%Fewer than 100 reasonably credible reports remain unexplainable at this time.
70%CIA interest in the subject should not reach the press or public to avoid alarmist reactions treating it as confirmatory.
70%Interplanetary origins of unexplained reports were not thoroughly excluded from consideration, warranting continued intelligence coverage.
65%There is no pattern of specific sizes, configurations, characteristics, performance, or location among the unexplained reports.
65%Interplanetary origin cannot be thoroughly excluded so long as reports remain unexplainable, so intelligence should continue coverage.
60%
Events
Jul 31, 1952
CIA memorandum on flying saucers evaluation
Internal CIA memo assessing the credibility of flying saucer reports received by ATIC.
Aug 7, 1952
Planned briefing at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
A thorough and comprehensive briefing on the subject arranged with the Commanding Officer of ATIC, after which a detailed analysis would be prepared.
Jul 31, 1952
CIA memorandum on flying saucers issued
Memo evaluating flying saucer reports and recommending continued covert surveillance.
Aug 7, 1952
Planned briefing at ATIC, Wright-Patterson AFB
A thorough and comprehensive briefing on the subject arranged with the Commanding Officer of ATIC.
Dates mentioned
Keywords
Entities
Extracted text (OCR)
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_ Deputy Asaistant Director/ST 1 August 1952
Acting Chief, Veapons & Equircent Division oe
"Flying Saucers" oo . gfe
1. Pursuant to your request for overall eveluation of "flying
--. Saucers” and associated reports, the following ig pertinents .
Gs Of 10CO to 2600 such reports received by ATIC, a
Jarge percentage are clearly "phoney", An equally lerge
percentare can be eatisfactorlly exnlainea as know flichts —
of crrently operational U.S, equipzent (aircraft, weather
tallcons, ete.) and rany others are_umcubtedly of naturel
_. phenomena-(neteorites, clouds, aberration of light caused
by thernalizversion oF reflections, eto.) .« |
b. Less than 1¢0 reasonabl.credible resorts remain
*unexplainsdle® at_this tine; regarcing these resorts, =
there is no pattern of ssecific Sices, confizarations,
characteristics, perforrence
re)
ane2, or location. The sources
of thess reports era cenerally no more or Jess credible
than the sources of the other catesories, It.is probable we
that if conplete inforzation wore available for presently - ---- - ON
—-ha ves
Kunexplainable™ resorts, thez, tco, could be evalusted dntg
categories as inliceiad in "a" above, ~~ “AS
2. Notwithstanding the forescing tentative facts, so long ag
& series of reverts rer-ains “unexplainable (interplanetary aspects.
j elf in not bsins thorouchly excluded fron condidera
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eauticn tequires that intellisence continue ¢
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rage of the subject. So
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is recamenited that GIA surveillance of subject matter, k
in coordinstion with uroser authorities of primary operational concern - \
continued. It is strongly urced, however, that no indication
est cr-concern reach the press or mdiic, in view of their
proteble @eraist tenlensios to eeceot such interest as "confirmatory!
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of the scumdness of "unpublished facts"-in the hens of the U. S,
The undersigned has erranced with the Commanding Officer of
the Air Technical Intellicence Center at Vrisht-Patterson Air Fores
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T wa
ra thorourh and couprehensive tricfing ralated to this
vgust 1952, Subsequent to obteinin= fll details, a
‘detailed analysis will be Pprepered and forwarded.
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Acting Chief, Veapons & Equiment Divistoa oe
Ly 1g Saucers" oe ; . yor
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1. Pursuant to your request for overall evaluation of "flying
saucers" and associated reports, the following is pertinents .
&. Of 10CO to 2600 such reports received by ATIC, a
Jarge percentace are clearly Mphoney". An equally large
percentace can be satisfactorlly exnlained as know flichts
of currently operational U.S. equipzent (sireraft, weathe
talloons, ete.) and rany ‘others are unicubtedly of natural
phenozena (meteorites, clouds, aberration of light caused
by thermalinversion or reflections, etc.). °
bt. Less than 100 reasonabl:: credible reports remain
mexplainsdle™ eat this tines rezaréing thesa reports, ~ 7
Hera is no pattern of ssesifie sises, confizarations, Be
characteristics, perforrance, or location, The sources -
of thesa renorts ers generally no pore or less credible . Sore
than the sources ef the other catefories, It is probable ;
that if complete irforcation were available for presently
Fonezpleinable" resorts, they, teo, could be evaluated into
categories as iniisstad in "a" above,
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2, Notwithstanding the forescing tentative facts, so long.ags_..
ts rerains "Nunoxpleinable’ -(interplanstar aspects _
“-2n orizin not beine therouchly exelwied fraa consideration) —— a
caution Tequires that intelligence continue coverage of the subject.
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_. 3+ IN is recommended that CIA surveillance cf sudject ratter, =
in coorzinsztion with rreser authorities of nrinary operational coracern:
at ATIC, be continued. “It ig strongly urced, hovaver, that no indication ~
of CIA interest er concern reach the press or public, in view of their
pretable alarmist tendencies to accent such interest as "confimmtoryit
of the sodiness of "unpublished facts" in the hanis of tha U.S.
.
4, The wersioned has erranced with the Commanding Officer of
the Air Technical Tatellicerce Center. at Vrisht-Patterson dir Force a
eo, fora thorough aml _couprehensive tricfing related to thig
subject on 8 Austst 1952,—- Subseauent to cbtainin= fw1 detcils, a
detailed enalysis will be prepered and forverded, _
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