SAIC Experiment Database: Anomalous Mental Phenomena Research Memorandum (1991–1994)

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The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
330 Cowper Street, Suite 200, Palo Alto, CA 94301
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An Empioyee-Owned Company e-mail: may@hildegard.saicmp.com
Memorandum
SG1I Pate: 25 July 1995

From: Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
Re: SAIC Experiment Database
SG1I Cc: Michael Mumford, Ph.D. and Andy Rose, Ph.D. (ATR)

T have been asked to identify a complete list of experiments that were conducted at Science
Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 4 February 1991 through 30
September 1994, ‘his memorandum lists the experiments, describes their qustification, and
tabulates their overall results. In addition, complete references to the original reports will
be provided.

Background

It is instructive to waderstand the context in which SAIC was cantracted ta canduct research

into anomalous mental phenomena. hollowing the example of the previous Cognitive

Sciences Program at SRI International, we were asked to create a Scientific Oversight

Conunittee (SOC) that would be actively involved in monitoring the research. ‘he SOC’ s

charter was to:

* Review and approve a detailed written protocol, including all statistical analyses, for each
proposed experiment.

* Lxercise unannounced “drop-in” privileges to observe experiments in progress.

* Review, in written form, the final reports and the conclusion of each study.

« Provide guidelines for future research.

‘To comply with a Congressional-directed requirement, the tirst four months of the contract
were used to prepare a 5-year integrated research plan. Following that, technical and
human-use protocols had to be officially approved before any experimentation could begin.
Thus, data collection began in January 1992. Experiments continued, albeit with gaps to
prepare and seck approval for more protocols, through March, (994,

All approved technical and human-use (ie., Institutional Review Board) protocol
documents, final reports, and SOC comments ate on file with the sponsor and are available
for review.

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Experiment Database Summary

All experiments may be found in one of two documents or additionally in separate
publications:

(1) May, E. CC, Luke, W. L. W., and Lantz, N. D. @ February 1993).
Phenomenological Research and Analysis. Final Report: 6.2 and 6.3.

(2) May, KF. ¢1, bake, W. 1. W., and James, ©. 1. (29° September 1994).

>

Phenomenological Research and Analysis. Final Report.

Ten experiments were conducted by SAIC under government contract. These experiments
include all pilot and formal series, and they contain all the trials that were conducted (e.,
there is no file-drawer problem, by definition). Table 1 shows the summary information
for the 10 SAIC experiments.

‘Table 1.
SAIC Experiment Database (19491-1944)

Number Experiment Reference | Trials Effect Size P-Value
1 Target Dependencies 1 (11-30) 200 0.1242 0.071 0.0440
2 AC of Binary Targets 1 (31-38) 300 0.123+0.058 0.017
3. |MEG Replication 1 (39-48) | 12,000s MCE MCE
4 AC With Binary Coding 1 (49-56) 40 -0.067=0. 158 0.664
5 AC in Lucid Dreams (B-Ling) | 1 (58-60) 24 G.0$820.204 0.333
6 AC in Lucid Dreams (Pilot) 1 (58-60) 21 0.368+0.218 0.046
7 Remote Observation 2 (2-3) A8 0.36140.144 0.006
8 ERD EEG Investigation 2G-11) |] 7,000s MCE MCE
2? ERD AC Behavior 2 G-11) 7O 0.30320.120 0.006

10 | Entropy IL 2(11-12)| 90 | 0.550:0.105 | 9.1<10°

References are shown as Document Number (Beginning-Final Page). Those experime nts
that are underlined may also be found elsewhere. Experiments 1 and 10 have been
published in the peer-reviewed journal, Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 58, 285-302, and
experiment number 7 may be found in an Institute of Noetic Sciences publication, (These
additional documents have been made available to the review team.)

Experiments 3 and 8 were physiologically oriented and the number of trials shown is the
approximate number of stimuli.

The effect size and its associated p-value is computed across all conditions and across all
subjects and is provided as a conservative guideline.”

“ For this casual meta-analysis, I combined, post #oc, the results across receivers and conditions. With
some exceptions, itis not my policy to combine data across individuals. I believe this is incorrect if one
is studying the parameters of exceptional performance.

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Experiment Details

This section includes the raison d’ &tre and conclusions for each experiment listed in Table
1. ‘The protocol details may be tound in the technical proposals to the SOC and in the
formal] descriptions either in the primary two reports or their associated publications.

1. Target and Sender Dependencies

In anomalous cognition (AC) experiments, it is important to know if the quality of the data
depend upon whether a second individual (.e., a sender) is focusing attention on the target
material. Secondly, it is claimed in the Ganzfeld literature that dynamic targets (i... video
clips) are “better” targets than ate static ones (e., photographs).

We found that a sender is not a necessary condition for good AC and. contrary to the
Ganzfeld results, we found that static targets produced stronger AC than did the dynamic
ones. In addition, we tound a Ateniticant correlation with the quahty of AC! and the
gradient of Shannon entropy for the static targets. The effect size quoted in Table t is
computed across sender and target conditions.

These results led to the publication of Managing the Target-Pool Bandwidth: Possible
Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments, Journal af Parapsychalagy , Vol.
58, 303-313 and a revised version of Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic ‘Varget Property:
Toward a Reductionist Model of Anomalous Cognition, in press, Journal of
Parapsychology and Appendix D in document number 2.

2. Enhancing Detection of AC of Binary Targets

There are a few examples in the literature that suggest that information theory and error
correction may increase the de tection of AC. This experiment was designed to enhance
binary hitting rate by applying sequential analysis to a sequence of single AC decisions at
the binary bit level, Two novices receivers and one experienced one contributed 100
overall binary trials.

‘The expenenced receiver Q.e., 541) who had produced significant results in SRE ‘s random
number generator experiment in 1979, produced a significant result in this experiment.
Although this individual ’s result was significant at the 10 7 level, the effi ciency was low.
‘That is, 213 individual binary calls were required to eventually amve at a single sequential
analysis decision. The effect size and p-value shown in Table 1 are computed for all three
receivers; however, the significant combined result is eaclusively because of receiver $31,

3. Magnetoencephalograph Replication

At the close of the SRI Intemational Cognitive Sciences Program, May et al. reported
significant neuromagnetic responses to sensorially and physically isolated image stimuli.
‘The stimuli lasted for 100 ms and consisted of spatially low frequency sinusoidal grating.
This experiment was an extensive replication attempt with substantially more data.

Although the preliminary results were promising , there was no statistical evidence of an
ettect. ‘That is the ettort and control condinons were. atahahically inseparable, and care was

"A definition of terms may be found in the Glossary at the end of this memorandum

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exercised so that the experiment possessed sufficient statistical power that an effect of the
magnitude of the SRI study would have been easily seen.

After the fact, a major fatal Haw was discovered in this and in the earlier expernment. ‘I'he
SOC, the neuroscience staff at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the staff of the
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory all failed to recognize the error. The dependent variable was
the instantaneous phase shift of the dominant alpha rhythm concomitant with the stimulus.
The Crammer-Rao condition, which sets lower mits on the variance in such measurements
prevented us from seeing an effect, even if one existed.

This experiment, provided si enificant insight in the design of the next attempt to identify a
central nervous system correlate to AC.

4. Enhancing Detection of AC with Binary Coding

The reason for this experiment was to develop a message sending algorithm using AC,
Sets of five dichotomies were identified in our standard target pool fe. &-, Mountains versus
flat) to act as “binary” bits in a standard two-by-five, error corecting block code.

‘his experiment produced no statistical evidence of AC, although the statistical power was
quite low. Each of five receivers contributed only eight trials. Receivers’ individual effect
sizes ranged from -0,559 to 0,224,

The primary purpose was to use the error correction to “send a message .” The effect size
shown in ‘lable 1 is computed across all tive receivers,

S. AC in Lucid Dreams (Baseline)

In a pilot series to determine if AC can be enhance d in the altered state known asa lucid
dream (i.¢., a dream in which the dreamer becomes aware that she or he is dreaming an can
signal the waking world of this awareness). Three of the receivers were Lucidity Institute
personnel had not been previously mvalved in AC! expermments.

Each of these receivers contributed eight AC trials. One produced solid evidence for AC
(i.c., FS = 0.265). The effect sizes trom the remain ing two receivers cannot be obtained

without consulting the raw analysis data; thus, the value in Table 1 assumes an effect size
of 0.0 for each of the these receivers.

6. AC in Lucid Dreams (Pilot)

‘wenty one trials were conduced in this pilot study. ‘he conditions were not ideal in that
each dreamer was allowed to take the intended target home for the night. Each target was
doubly sealed in Opaque envelopes and covert threads were attached to indicate any
potential tampering. This breach of supervision was tolerated becanse of the additional
benefit of the receivers being comfortable in their own beds. The effect size shown in
Table 1 was computed from the rank-order analysis across 21 trials.

7. Autonomic Deteotion of Romote Observation

Many of’ the experiment conducted in the Farmer Soviet Union (ESL) suggest that
biological systems make excellent targets for anomalous perturbation (AP). ‘his particular
experiment involves an isolated sendera tempting to physiologically arouse a sensorially
and isolated receiver. ‘"he state of arousal is measured by electrodermal activity.

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‘This expenment successtully repheated the early work and lends sppport for the claims in
the PSU.

8. Central Nervous System Response to AC Signals

Generally, there is no known human activity that does not interrupt the production of alpha
rhythm. ‘This includes responding to external stimuli, internal mental activity, or
intentionally moving a body part. We assumed,  theref ore, that AC would also interrupt
alpha. Improving on earlier experiments, we collect EEG data and standard behavioral AC
data that could be analyzed in the usual way. In addition, event related desynchronizations
(FRT») resulting from direct stinvalation by the AC target during the feedhack phase of a
trial were used ag templates for match filters. These filters are the most sensitive way to
search for the assumed similar ERD in the EEG record that was collected during the AC
portion of the trial.

We have only analyzed one. KKCi lead and found no evidence ot an AC™indnced ERED.
When time and resources become available, we will finish the analysis for the remaining
leads.

Regardless of the outcome of this analysis, it will be a useful result; it is almost as
interesting if there is no ERD while there is significant evidence far AC.

9. ERD AC Behavior

Seventy trials were blind judged by the rank-order technique. ‘I'wo of the receiver
produced independently significant results, but the effect size shown in Table 1 is the
combined result for all three receivers.

10. The Gradient of Shannen’s Entropy

This experiment isa replication of the entropy and target-type portion of Experiment 1.
‘The protocol was su hstantially improved by nar rowing the target-pool handwidth and hy
monitoring the sessions. Conceptually, the entropy result appeared to replicate; that is, the

larger the Shannon entropic gradient in the target, the better the AC. The significantly
stronger effect size in the dynamic targets reflect the mmproved protocol, Because the
Significant correlation primarily came from the target difference, it is premature to assure
that the gradient of the entropy is the deciding factor. Added to the manuseript for
publication, were the successful Monte Calo results that favorably support this hypothesis,
however. The effect size shown in Table 1 was computed across target type and receiver.

Comments

By definition, this data set does not contain a so-called file drawer problem. That is, all the
data from the SAIC database were included tor examination . Kor the six experiments that

used a mote traditional AC protocol, regardless of conditions, the weighted (by number of

trials) effect size is 0.23020.047 in 455 tials (p = 5.7x107),"

” All these experiments had been approved by the SOC and IRB.

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GLOSSARY

Not all the terms defined below are germane to this report, but they are included here for
completeness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define:

* Anomalous Cognition (AC)—A form of intormation transter in which all know sensorial
stimuli are absent. That is some individuals are able to gain access to information by an
as yet unknown process. This is also known as Remote Viewimg (RV) and
Clairyoyance.

* Apent— An individual who attempts to influence a target system by mental means alone.

* Analyst—An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. This individual
usually is blind to experimental conditions and the intended target.

* Anomalous Perturbation (API—A torm of rmteraction with matter in which all known
physical mechanisms are absent. That is, some individuals are able to influence matter
by an as yet unknown process. This is also known as Psychokinesis (PK).

* Beacon— An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended
target, acts as a focus of attention for the receiver in AC experiments.

- Compute Assisted Search (CAS)—The use of computer-generated options which are
linked to real-world objects in a Search task.

* Reedback — After a response has been secured, information about he intended target is
vepiayed to the receiver or ragent.

bd Noise —Incorrect elements in an AC response.
* Protocol —A template for conducting a structured data collection session,

sengorially isolated target. A Receiver i is also known asa Subject or Percipient.
« Response — Material that is produced during an At* session.

* Search —'The inverse of AC, ‘That is, given a known target, determine its location. ‘This
1s also known as Dowsing.

* Sender— An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended
target, acts as a putative transmitter of that information to the receiver in AC experiments.

* Session —a time interval during which AMP data are collected.

* Specaalty—A given receiver s abibty to be particularly successtul with a given class of
targets (e.g., people as appased ta buildings).

+ Target— An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g,, person, place, thing, event).

« Target Designation——A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all
other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.9., geographical coordinates).

* Trial—The smallest unit of data to be analyzed.

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